NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills closing line: Moving in Buffalo’s favor

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By: Brendan Vander Vliet

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills spread, odds

  • New York Jets: +10 (-110)
  • Buffalo Bills: -10 (-110)

All odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

The New York Jets are heading to Buffalo for a Week 14 showdown that has major playoff implications. The Jets, who lost in Minnesota last week to the 10-2 Vikings, are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011. They have a big test in front of them as the Bills have won three straight and are now occupying the top seed in the AFC.

Buffalo opened as 9.5-point favorites, so the line has shifted a half-point in the Bills’ favor since then.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills moneyline

  • New York Jets: +370
  • Buffalo Bills: -480

New York is +370 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet will pay out $370 of profit.

The Jets are trying to sweep the Bills for the first time since 2011. New York won the first matchup between these two teams at MetLife Stadium 20-17 in Week 9. The Jets’ defense played one of its best games of the year, forcing Josh Allen into two turnovers and giving the Jets’ offense a short field.

New York did a great job containing the Bills passing attack in Week 9. The Bills only had 183 passing yards, which remains their worst total of the season. Allen’s rushing ability hurt the Jets as he had 9 carries for 86 yards and two touchdowns. If the Jets can contain Allen on the ground, I think they have a good chance to win the game. To accomplish this, the Jets can incorporate a spy on Allen, especially on third down when he does a lot of his damage.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills over-under

  • New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills over-under: 43.5
  • Over: -105
  • Under: -115

A late-season divisional game historically trends to under. I would agree with this trend as I expect this could be another low-scoring game like we saw in Week 9.

Both defenses have been playing at a high level all season. New York’s defense ranks fourth-best in total yards, allowing only 307 per game, while Buffalo ranks 10th, allowing 320 per game. Moreover, both teams rank in the top six of the NFL in points per game. The Bills only allow 17.4 points per game and the Jets only allow 18.6 points.

The weather in Buffalo still does not look appealing. Buffalo is calling for high 30-degree weather with chances of rain and snow all day. This could make playing conditions tough for both offenses, limiting the explosive plays.

Combining the weather and these two dominant defenses, I think this game has a great chance to stay under the total.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills injuries

New York has been dealing with the flu bug going around the team. Micheal Clemons remains questionable for Sunday with an illness as he has not practiced all week. Everyone else on the injury report practiced fully on Friday and will be good to go for Week 14.

The Bills are the more injured team heading into Sunday. Reggie Gilliam and Jordan Phillips have already been ruled out. Matt Milano and tackle Dion Dawkins are both questionable with lower body injuries. Dawkins is expected to play while Milano’s status remains up in the air. The rest of the players on the Bills’ injury report were full participants on Friday and will play on Sunday.

Next Article: Best NY Jets prop bets vs. Bills: Garrett Wilson looks intriguing 

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